[deralexxx]

Ganz nette Analyse aus Israel:

https://twitter.com/segal_eran/statu...31721981415428

Mit ein paar Sätzen:

1. Don’t open schools with a high number of daily cases and high infection rates (R-naught around 1). This will fuel a further surge, and anyway be ineffective due to many quarantines of kids and teachers
2. Don’t manage the pandemic based on the capacity of your healthcare system. You are bound to reach it. At that point, the outbreak will reach record levels, a high death toll, lockdown will be needed, and it will take very long to bring the numbers down. Act early
3. An outbreak in the younger population will inevitably reach the elderly within weeks
4. An outbreak in some cities will inevitably spread to other cities, due to population mixing. We had localized outbreaks but could not implement differential lockdown due to political reasons, and they eventually spread
5. In a heterogeneous population, lockdowns can have different effects on different groups due to different behaviors of these populations. Two weeks into the lockdown, the outbreak halted in the general population but continues to spread in the Orthodox

Er selbst bezeichnet sich als:

Scientist at the Weizmann Institute. Microbiome, Genetics, Nutrition, Machine learning. Marathon runner (2h 56m)

Die nutzen teils auch Machine Learning um basierend auf Daten aus der Vergangenheit, Modelle rechnen zu lassen, wie es sich entwickeln (könnte).